An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

Fonte: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6V75-4C5HPGD-1-... [2]
Acesso em: 4 nov. 2009.

Each year more offenders are sentenced to probation than to any other sanction in the criminal justice system.
In spite of the saliency of probation programs, the evidence is mixed concerning their effectiveness. In order to
address this important gap in the research, the authors sought to determine if probation was effective in achieving
one of its stated goals: protecting public safety. In doing so, they conducted a macro-level analysis, exploring the
relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in each county in California over a nine-year
period. Results from a two-way fixed effects regression model suggested that as probation loads increased, so did
crime. While additional research into the effectiveness of probation is clearly needed, the results of the analysis
nevertheless indicated that improvements in public safety could be expected if probation caseloads were reduced.
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